September 20, 2024 – According to a blog post released today by market research firm Counterpoint Research, Apple Intelligence is unlikely to significantly boost sales of the iPhone 16 series, predicting that the industry will not enter into a “super cycle” this year.
The term “super cycle” refers to periods of exceptional growth in iPhone sales, and historically, there have been two key super cycles: the first with the iPhone 6 in 2016 and the second with the iPhone 12/13 in 2021. A common underlying factor during these super cycles was “pent-up” demand, whether it was for a larger screen in the case of the iPhone 6 or due to a clever product mix strategy and demand suppressed by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021.
However, Counterpoint Research argues that in the current situation, while Apple Intelligence offers many excellent use cases that address certain user pain points, it lacks the compelling factor needed to drive a super cycle. The firm believes that, at least in the short term, there is no visible “pent-up” demand from consumers for General AI (GenAI) capabilities, unlike in previous super cycles.
Furthermore, the rollout of Apple Intelligence features and regional availability is expected to be staggered, meaning its full impact will likely be gradual rather than explosive. As such, Counterpoint Research does not anticipate a significant surge in iPhone 16 sales driven by Apple Intelligence.
