June 30, 2026 – Top Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has laid out the core logic behind Apple’s aggressive lobbying of the U.S. government to remove Chinese memory maker CXMT from the Entity List, pointing out that the global DRAM supply-demand imbalance will stretch well into 2027 as the fundamental driving force behind the push.
The pressure Apple now faces has shifted far beyond simple memory price hikes, evolving into a hard, structural supply shortage that cannot be easily mitigated through cost pass-through or supplier swaps. Industry projections show that 15% to 20% of the DRAM capacity currently allocated to the consumer electronics sector in 2026 will be reallocated to data center operations by 2027, with that diversion rate poised to climb even higher. This will steadily shrink the pool of available memory for consumer devices. As a direct result of tight LPDDR supply, Apple’s actual memory shipments for its A20 chip lineup from the second half of 2026 through the first quarter of 2027 are expected to drop 10%-20% below original procurement targets — even aggressive overbooking strategies cannot fully offset the capacity shortfall.
Kuo also draws a clear distinction between Apple’s past efforts with Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) and its current push for CXMT access. The 2022 campaign around YMTC was primarily a cost-cutting move designed to drive down NAND flash pricing, but this latest initiative to secure CXMT DRAM access is a far higher-stakes strategic play focused entirely on mitigating critical DRAM supply chain security risks.
While CXMT explicitly states in its IPO prospectus that its current production capacity falls far short of domestic Chinese market demand, meaning even full approval for Apple to source its DRAM would not fundamentally lower overall memory costs or close the global supply gap, the tech giant still sees immense value in adding this new stable supply stream. This move diversifies Apple’s DRAM sourcing base, breaking the near-total reliance on the three dominant global players — Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix — and reducing the risk of sudden supply cuts or coordinated price spikes.
Apple is also pushing to finalize these policy negotiations before Tim Cook steps down as CEO, leveraging his unique status as one of the few tech industry leaders with established, working channels to both U.S. and Chinese stakeholders. Even if the lobbying effort does not secure full approval, the public campaign itself delivers tangible benefits: it sends a clear message to consumers and investors that Apple has exhausted every possible avenue to expand its supply chain, softening negative sentiment around rising product prices and extended delivery timelines.
