June 28, 2024 –A recent report by the US-based consulting firm Alix Partners forecasts that Chinese automakers will command a significant 33% share of the global automotive market by 2030. This prediction marks a substantial increase from the current 21% market share, with the bulk of the growth anticipated to originate from markets beyond China’s borders.
The report estimates that sales in these overseas markets will soar from 3 million units this year to a staggering 9 million by 2030, translating into a market share hike from 3% to 13%. This rapid expansion has garnered worldwide attention, sparking concerns that low-cost Chinese-made vehicles will flood the market, posing a significant challenge to locally produced models, particularly electric vehicles.
However, Alix Partners maintains that China has emerged as a disruptive force in the automotive industry, offering vehicles that hit the market quickly, are priced competitively, and lead in terms of technology and design. These vehicles, the firm argues, are manufactured efficiently and meet the evolving consumer preferences for novelty and innovation.
In the US market, stringent safety standards and high tariffs are expected to limit Chinese automakers to a mere 3% share, primarily concentrated in Mexico, where by 2030, one out of every five cars sold is anticipated to be a Chinese brand. However, in other key regions such as Central and South America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, Chinese manufacturers are expected to witness substantial growth.
The European market also holds promise for Chinese automakers, with Alix Partners forecasting a doubling of their market share from the current 6% to 12% by 2030. This rapid expansion, the report suggests, is attributed to China’s cost advantages, localized production strategies, and the introduction of high-tech vehicles.
Moreover, Alix Partners predicts that with the rapid development of the domestic auto industry and the emergence of companies like BYD, Geely, and NIO, Chinese brands’ share in the home market will increase from 59% to 72%. This shift, the firm believes, will further strengthen China’s position as a global automotive powerhouse.
