November 29, 2025 – As reported by Fortune on November 26 local time, a major concern in the current capital market revolves around how OpenAI can not only meet the nearly boundless computing power demands of ChatGPT but also make its business model truly profitable.
HSBC remains steadfast in its view that AI represents a long – term growth trend and believes OpenAI will maintain a leading position in terms of revenue. However, its calculations indicate that if OpenAI aims to achieve its goals, it will face extremely heavy financial pressure over the next decade.
HSBC forecasts that by 2030, OpenAI’s user base will cover 44% of the global adult population, yet it will still struggle to turn a profit. Moreover, to sustain its growth plans, the company will need to invest at least an additional $207 billion in computing power. This assessment is set against a backdrop of high infrastructure costs, intensifying competition, and an AI market with an unprecedented level of capital intensity.
When updating its model, the HSBC team factored in OpenAI’s long – term cloud agreements with Microsoft worth 250billionandwithAmazonworth38 billion. It noted that these capacity expansion commitments were not accompanied by new financing. OpenAI’s target is to reach 36 gigawatts of computing power by the end of this decade, an amount equivalent to the electricity consumption of a U.S. state of medium size.
HSBC predicts that OpenAI’s free cash flow will remain negative until 2030, with an overall shortfall of 207billion.Evenifthecompany′srevenuecouldpotentiallyexceed213 billion by 2030, it would still fall short of covering the costs of computing power and data center leasing. Even with measures such as increasing subscription fees, entering more advertising markets, and improving computing efficiency, additional funds will still be required.
OpenAI’s future is closely tied to its investors and the AI industry chain. Microsoft and Amazon serve as both partners and investors, while Oracle, NVIDIA, and AMD will also be affected by its rise or fall. However, significant risks loom large. Questions remain unanswered regarding the sustainability of its business model, whether the subscription market will become saturated, whether regulatory pressures will increase, and whether the capital requirements are too large.
HSBC points out that OpenAI could potentially continue to take on debt, but doing so under current market conditions will be extremely difficult. Recently, Oracle and Meta have taken on substantial debt for AI capital expenditures, sparking concerns in the market about the sustainability of AI financing. The significant rise in Oracle’s credit default swaps has further set off alarm bells among analysts.
On a broader scale, HSBC quoted Solow’s famous saying, “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics,” to remind that the expected productivity improvements have not materialized as significantly as in previous technological revolutions. There are even doubts about whether the returns from the Internet revolution over the past three decades have truly been realized. Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams has pointed out that the productivity gains from new technologies are more evident in leisure consumption rather than in office work and manufacturing.
